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启明创投发布2026 AI十大展望：顶尖模型将内化大部分“外挂”能力_我的网站

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A | 智东西（公众号：zhidxcom）作者 | ZeR0 编辑 | 漠影智东西7月21日，7月19日，启明创投主办世界人工智能大会WAIC 2026“启明创投·创业与投资论坛——从算力原点到应用落地的进化征程”，聚焦AI在创业与投资领域的最前沿动态，汇聚顶尖科学家、创新领军者与资深投资人，设置了3场主题演讲、1场深度对话、1场圆桌讨论，并重磅发布三大核心成果，探讨行业如何跨越单纯的参数追求，转向对实际场景、降本增效以及商业模式闭环的极致探索。作为AI领域最具前瞻性与影响力的创投机构之一，这是启明创投连续第四年主办该论坛，也是本届世界人工智能大会唯一一场由创业投资机构发起的、旨在从创新视角展示和探讨AI从算力底层走向产业落地的最新突破的论坛。启明创投从2013年开始系统性布局AI领域，截至目前在AI领域累计投资了超过100个项目，投资总额达120亿元人民币。

Secretary of Defense of the Philippines, Gilberto Teodoro Jr., speaks during the 37th International Military Law and Operations Conference in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, on August 3, 2026. Photo: VCG

China's Embassy in the Philippines on Saturday rejected Philippine Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro Jr.'s renewed allegations over 70 Chinese workers at a steel plant in Mindanao who were arrested and later released, citing a prosecutorial resolution ordering their release while questioning the military's involvement, the workers' harsh detention conditions and possible selective law enforcement.
The statement came after Teodoro, who was sanctioned by China in June, accused the Chinese Foreign Ministry on Saturday of continuing to evade what he called the "crucial issue": whether the Chinese nationals arrested in the Philippines were involved in illegal activities, and whether Chinese embassy officials have intervened in local law enforcement processes, according to Philstar.
Ji Lingpeng, spokesperson for the Chinese Embassy in the Philippines, directly addressed both questions in Saturday's statement.
Ji noted that a May 28 resolution by Philippine prosecution authorities had found insufficient evidence to support allegations against the workers and ordered all 70 Chinese nationals to be released.
"Yet Teodoro continues to accuse them of engaging in illegal activities in the Philippines. Does he respect the rule of law and the decisions of the judiciary?" Ji asked.
Ji also questioned whether violations of Philippine law should be determined by the defense secretary or the country's judicial authorities.
"Secretary Teodoro's remarks are completely unfounded. They distort the facts and turn black into white," Ji said.
The embassy raised multiple questions about the May operation, which Ji said Teodoro had instructed the Philippine armed forces to join. The spokesperson asked why unarmed workers rather than those responsible for managing the plant had been detained, why only Chinese workers were arrested while Filipino employees were released at the scene, and why the Chinese nationals were transported to Manila aboard a military aircraft.
The embassy also said some workers had been instructed to put on personal protective equipment and pose for photographs during the raid, which were subsequently used in publicity surrounding the case.
Responding to Teodoro's claim that the embassy had intervened in Philippine law enforcement, Ji said anyone with a basic understanding of diplomacy would know that protecting the safety and legitimate rights and interests of its nationals is a fundamental responsibility of an embassy.
"Regardless of the reason a Chinese national is detained, the Chinese Embassy has the right and responsibility to conduct consular visits, provide consular protection, make communication with and demarches to relevant Philippine law-enforcement authorities to ensure humane, fair and just treatment of detained Chinese nationals," Ji said.
"We fully respect the Philippines' judicial sovereignty and the lawful handling of cases by its relevant law-enforcement authorities," Ji said. "If solid evidence proves a foreign national is in violation of Philippine law, he or she shall be brought to justice in accordance with the law. The same is true in China. However, we firmly oppose any discriminatory or selective law enforcement campaigns targeting Chinese nationals by the Philippine side out of political considerations."
The Philippine Department of National Defense responded in a separate statement on Sunday, claiming that "The Chinese Embassy's response does not contain any answers," adding that "this is, in legal practice, an implied admission of culpability," according to Inquirer.net.
All 70 Chinese nationals associated with the steel plant in Mindanao have been released, Xinhua News Agency reported in June. The Manila Times reported that they were released after authorities cited insufficient evidence of specific immigration and labor violations.
Renewing allegations against the Chinese workers after their release for insufficient evidence lacks justification, Chen Xiangmiao, director of the World Navy Research Center at the National Institute for South China Sea Studies, told the Global Times on Sunday.
Having a defense secretary personally direct the armed forces to participate in an operation targeting civilian workers departs from normal law enforcement procedures, Chen said. Teodoro's continued politicization of the case after the workers' release reflects an intensification of anti-China agitation by certain forces in the Philippines, he noted.
Selective investigations and enforcement targeting Chinese nationals are driven not by law but by political manipulation designed to cater to domestic anti-China sentiment, Chen said.
The trend shows that anti-China forces represented by Teodoro intend to continue fomenting hostility toward China, shaping negative public perceptions and provoking antagonism between the peoples of the two countries, with serious consequences for bilateral relations, he added.
The resulting hostile environment could also have severe negative consequences for Chinese investment in the Philippines and normal people-to-people exchanges, he said.
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun said on Friday that "it's learned that it was exactly this defense secretary who personally led the armed forces to seize and detain Chinese nationals lawfully working in the Philippines. This person's consistent attacks and smears against China harm not only the bilateral relations. It is the interests of the Philippines and all its people that will bear the brunt."
。通过对底层算力、基础模型、多模态技术、具身智能及垂直应用的全产业链布局，启明创投已成功发掘并助推了多个创新标杆企业成长，见证AI进入智能爆发时代。

B | 在开幕演讲环节，启明创投主管合伙人周志峰发表了题为“跨越技术浪潮：寻找AI时代的商业拐点”的演讲，围绕基础模型、具身智能、AI基础设施、AI应用等做出2026启明创投AI十大展望。这是启明创投连续第四年发布AI十大展望。 1、基础模型展望一：未来12-24个月，顶尖模型将内化大部分“外挂”能力，包括任务规划、工具调用、多Agent协同及部分Harness工程能力等。展望二：多模态模型将进一步向可交互世界建模演进，成为AI在物理世界获得环境感知、长期规划并大规模落地的关键技术路径。

C | 2、具身智能展望三：头部机器人公司的有效数据，将从2025年的“万小时级”，跃升到2027年的“百万小时级”，其中人类第一视角数据会占绝对主导。展望四：灵巧手将迎来加速发展，带有触觉感知的灵巧手会逐渐成熟并持续降本，与双指夹爪方案形成高低搭配，在复杂操作场景逐渐规模化渗透。 3、AI基础设施展望五：AI算力需求重心转向推理，存储、先进制程和先进封装产能层层吃紧，未来两年AI基建将持续面临结构性紧缺，算力资产储备将升格为AI企业的核心战略。展望六：AI基础设施将进入系统级竞争阶段，竞争维度覆盖芯片、互联、散热、供电等关键环节，未来两年内有望涌现基于新架构的算力芯片及超节点大集群，以实现低成本、高效率的Token生产。展望七：安全可信将与产品效果、Token成本并列为影响企业AI大规模落地的三大关键变量，安全可信AI将从可选项升级为必选项。

D | 4、AI应用展望八：未来12-24个月，AI应用的商业模式将加速脱离互联网时代的Freemium逻辑，转向以结果和价值定价。衡量AI公司的核心指标，将从用户规模转向单位智能成本创造的商业价值。展望九：未来12-24个月，AI应用商业化将聚焦垂直场景与高付费用户，效率端（save time）将领先消费端（kill time）率先爆发；伴随Token成本持续下降与交互范式创新，现象级AI消费应用将逐步浮现。展望十：未来12-24个月，AI-Native组织将从概念走向实证，一批企业将实现数倍于传统组织的人均产出。